[EVENT] Black Dragon Recruitment [Oct 5 - Oct 12]

Gunzlinger wrote:

I had a Sonia unit this morning. Traded her for Heidemarie. lol
If you'd said something earlier, I would've traded with you.
:l
I happen to really like Plautia's artwork. Caecilia... not so much.

A Heidi... for a Sonia? I'm interested. Did you throw anything more in the trade?

gtmeteor wrote:

4* : SSL = 36%, SSS = ? ( 3x SSL = 100% )
5* : SSL = 4%, SSS = 0.25%~ ( 25x SSL / 400x SSS = 100%~, not exactly sure about SSS, but should be right. )
6* : SSL = 2%, SSS = ? ( 50x SSL = 100% )

Enjoy. I'm not VERY sure I remember 4* correct, but I think it is. You should get the "succes is very high" with 3x SSL.

If you send me 3,4,5,6 stars I can check the SSS chances as well. Atm out of recruitable monsters

Any idea how monster level factors in?

po1102 wrote:

Gunzlinger wrote:

I had a Sonia unit this morning. Traded her for Heidemarie. lol
If you'd said something earlier, I would've traded with you.
:l
I happen to really like Plautia's artwork. Caecilia... not so much.

A Heidi... for a Sonia? I'm interested. Did you throw anything more in the trade?

Something like 10 TE? I'm not complaining. Heide's very hard to get. I gave her an LSS or two as a bonus, since I didn't feel right. lol

gtmeteor wrote:

4* : SSL = 36%, SSS = ? ( 3x SSL = 100% )
5* : SSL = 4%, SSS = 0.25%~ ( 25x SSL / 400x SSS = 100%~, not exactly sure about SSS, but should be right. )
6* : SSL = 2%, SSS = ? ( 50x SSL = 100% )

Enjoy. I'm not VERY sure I remember 4* correct, but I think it is. You should get the "succes is very high" with 3x SSL.

If you send me 3,4,5,6 stars I can check the SSS chances as well. Atm out of recruitable monsters

I have a Sonia you can experiment on...LoL!

Gunzlinger wrote:

po1102 wrote:

Gunzlinger wrote:

I had a Sonia unit this morning. Traded her for Heidemarie. lol
If you'd said something earlier, I would've traded with you.
:l
I happen to really like Plautia's artwork. Caecilia... not so much.

A Heidi... for a Sonia? I'm interested. Did you throw anything more in the trade?

Something like 10 TE? I'm not complaining. Heide's very hard to get. I gave her an LSS or two as a bonus, since I didn't feel right. lol

You have no right to complain when you got Heidi for that cheap! D:
I hate lucky bastards...

Hey all, does anyone have stats for Stray Cat when made as an ally? Is it worth trying to recruit her? Also, what happens if you fail in recruiting, will you lose the card? I've been successful the last time so am not sure what happens when you fail thanks in advance!

po1102 wrote:

Gunzlinger wrote:

po1102 wrote:

Gunzlinger wrote:

I had a Sonia unit this morning. Traded her for Heidemarie. lol
If you'd said something earlier, I would've traded with you.
:l
I happen to really like Plautia's artwork. Caecilia... not so much.

A Heidi... for a Sonia? I'm interested. Did you throw anything more in the trade?

Something like 10 TE? I'm not complaining. Heide's very hard to get. I gave her an LSS or two as a bonus, since I didn't feel right. lol

You have no right to complain when you got Heidi for that cheap! D:
I hate lucky bastards...

I probably could've got her for less :p
And trust me. I ain't complainin'.

GA-20327 AA-0 WA-16966 no skill speed S cost 15 melee unit...also no you only lose the SS.

Not great in general but during a Colosseum type event her speed and cost are nice. IMHO

People would generally rather have Angela in that situation though, wouldn't you say?

Sonia lv 50

SSL 1
SSS 50

Improbable, but not impossible

fail twice

I am out SSL and almost out of SSS. I will stock up and keep trying at LV 50 and hope for the best.

stronger and poison. Agreed.

gtmeteor wrote:

4* : SSL = 36%, SSS = ? ( 3x SSL = 100% )
5* : SSL = 4%, SSS = 0.25%~ ( 25x SSL / 400x SSS = 100%~, not exactly sure about SSS, but should be right. )
6* : SSL = 2%, SSS = ? ( 50x SSL = 100% )

Enjoy. I'm not VERY sure I remember 4* correct, but I think it is. You should get the "succes is very high" with 3x SSL.

If you send me 3,4,5,6 stars I can check the SSS chances as well. Atm out of recruitable monsters

It's not 100% though, so the numbers are skewed downwards.

I think gtmetear's numbers are correct.

Assumptions:
1) Each SSL = 40 SSS. This one's easy to check.
2) Each SSS adds a constant % to the success rate. In other words, though Mina might say the same thing on two different attempts, the odds are not the same.
3) The midpoint of the line "Who knows? Your guess is as good as mine" is equal to 50% chance.

This would mean:
0-10% (1-94 SSS)= "I have little faith your offering will be successful
10-25% (95-244 SSS) = "Improbable, not impossible"
25-40% (245-393 SSS) = "Well, we can hope for the best"
40-60% (394-593 SSS) = "Who knows? Your guess is as good as mine" (Note this range is 50SSS larger than previous!!)
60-80% (594-792 SSS) = "I have a good feeling about this" (again this range is ~200SSS)
80%+ (793+ SSS) = "The odds are extremely high"

This means that you can figure out the number of SSS for 100% chance by taking the midpoint of the "Who knows".

5* lv1 = 987 SSS, or ~25 SSL.

Are you guys suggesting it's smoothed instead of a step function basically? (ie adding more after whatever message increases your chances, even though it doesn't change the message until you reach a certain threshold?)

I just find it hard to believe there is a "100%" point, because Fantasica makes money when you fail. :p

Just recruited Laura on my first attempt.

Lv53 Laura, 4 ssL, 516 ssS = "Odds are extremely high." (got it)

When I dropped the ssS to 515, I received the message, "I've got a good feeling about this."

Actually, I'm suggesting that it's linear, ie each SSS adds a constant amount to the success rate.

More likely to be an exponential graph of some sort. You get diminishing returns near the max success %.

Exp until now:

Lvl 1 Sonia
6x SSL + 66SSS
frist try
failed

multiple attemps with less than 20 sss for: lvl 15 stray cat, lvl 1 Tullia, lvl 1 Bene: all failed

Lvl 1 Tullia
100 SSS
success!

Gunzlinger wrote:

More likely to be an exponential graph of some sort. You get diminishing returns near the max success %.

This. I think it's probably a logistic function (S-curve).

We have some evidence for this:
1) We have seen clear evidence of differences in outcomes within a single "message" range. This suggests the function is continuous, not a step function. The way that it scales with level suggests a continuous function as well (it so easily scales with different level monsters).
2) According to this topic, people have failed at levels well above the "highest" message. I do not think there is a 100% value. The logistic function may even be defined in a way that caps probability at something like 95%.
3) There appears to be a pretty steep curve on the low end as well. You see significant success at 5/10 sss for 4*, but no real success at 1 sss.

I may fiddle to see if I can define one that I think fits my rough understanding of the data.

Dan

Dannupa wrote:

Gunzlinger wrote:

More likely to be an exponential graph of some sort. You get diminishing returns near the max success %.

This. I think it's probably a logistic function (S-curve).

We have some evidence for this:
1) We have seen clear evidence of differences in outcomes within a single "message" range. This suggests the function is continuous, not a step function. The way that it scales with level suggests a continuous function as well (it so easily scales with different level monsters).
2) According to this topic, people have failed at levels well above the "highest" message. I do not think there is a 100% value. The logistic function may even be defined in a way that caps probability at something like 95%.
3) There appears to be a pretty steep curve on the low end as well. You see significant success at 5/10 sss for 4*, but no real success at 1 sss.

I may fiddle to see if I can define one that I think fits my rough understanding of the data.

Dan

Much better explanation of what I was going for. I couldn't remember the name of the graph. Been a while since high school math. lol

2 chances to recruit sonia

#1 - lvl 1 250 sss 5 ssl - failed
#2 - lvl 16 466 sss 4 ssl - failed

starting to get frustrated any suggestions should I be using more ssl? I have been only playing for a couple of weeks and used up most of everything I had to get the second attempt....

That very same mermaid
96 SSS
extremely high odds
failed

I think that mermaid hates me...

robdeezel wrote:

2 chances to recruit sonia

#1 - lvl 1 250 sss 5 ssl - failed
#2 - lvl 16 466 sss 4 ssl - failed

starting to get frustrated any suggestions should I be using more ssl? I have been only playing for a couple of weeks and used up most of everything I had to get the second attempt....

Well, looks like the suggestion that 400 sss = 100% chance is a tad off. >_<

TK wrote:

robdeezel wrote:

2 chances to recruit sonia

#1 - lvl 1 250 sss 5 ssl - failed
#2 - lvl 16 466 sss 4 ssl - failed

starting to get frustrated any suggestions should I be using more ssl? I have been only playing for a couple of weeks and used up most of everything I had to get the second attempt....

Well, looks like the suggestion that 400 sss = 100% chance is a tad off. >_<

Who said that?