[EVENT] Black Dragon Recruitment [Oct 5 - Oct 12]

clocksprocket wrote:

I got 3 SSS in a row on 10-4 just now.

I think it's about random, honestly.

Agreed i've tried many stages always about the same.

clocksprocket wrote:

I got 3 SSS in a row on 10-4 just now.

I think it's about random, honestly.

Yeah, that's true. But sheesh, I'm done with recruitment so not really care about SSS farming any more. Maybe I should sell you my excess to get TE.

gtmeteor wrote:

Formula for 5* recruitment chance:
round( ( 4 * SSL + 0.1 * SSS ) * ( 1 + LVL / 300 ) )

Now gimme a 6* to test...

Feels like we just found the holy grail!

I just got 7 sss in 6-3 again and reminded that the max. sss I got in 6-3 in a run is 7.

I have a strong hunch that 6* formula is somewhat close to
round( ( 2 * SSL + 0.05 * SSS ) * ( 1 + LVL / 360 ) )
I just can't confirm it

I have little faith your offering will be successful. — 0 to 9%
Hmm, improbable, but not impossible. — 10% to 24%
Well, we can always hope for the best. — 25% to 39%
Who knows? Your guess is as good as mine! — 40% to 59%
I have a good feeling about this. — 60% to 79%
I think our odds for success are extremely high. — 80% to 100%

^ Using your formulas above - 10 SSS on a level 30 5* would yield a 10% odds? Am I interpreting this correctly?

(1) x (.10) = .10 or 10% ??? Doesn't seem right.

King-Shawe wrote:

^ Using your formulas above - 10 SSS on a level 30 5* would yield a 10% odds? Am I interpreting this correctly?

You got your math wrong it's 1%

round( ( 4 * SSL + 0.1 * SSS ) * ( 1 + LVL / 300 ) )

round( ( 4 * 0 + 0.1 * 10 ) * ( 1 + 30 / 300 ) )

round( 1 * ( 1 + 1 / 10 ) )

round( 1 * 1.1 )

1

Got it, should be a parenthesis around the LVL/300 part then, I was adding 1 + LVL and diviving that result by 300

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

Guntrigger wrote:

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

This is what the past few pages of discussion have been about.

It's not a step function -- it's continuous. Meteor posted some guesses on the formula just last page. Thus, adding more SS even within the same message would increase your chances.

Guntrigger wrote:

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

I have little faith your offering will be successful. — 0 to 9%
Hmm, improbable, but not impossible. — 10% to 24%
Well, we can always hope for the best. — 25% to 39%
Who knows? Your guess is as good as mine! — 40% to 59%
I have a good feeling about this. — 60% to 79%
I think our odds for success are extremely high. — 80% to 100%

clocksprocket wrote:

Guntrigger wrote:

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

This is what the past few pages of discussion have been about.

It's not a step function -- it's continuous. Meteor posted some guesses on the formula just last page. Thus, adding more SS even within the same message would increase your chances.

Ok, I was reading the past few pages, but it seems that the formulas are guesses based on small amounts of testing. So was just making sure. Thanks

Guntrigger wrote:

clocksprocket wrote:

Guntrigger wrote:

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

This is what the past few pages of discussion have been about.

It's not a step function -- it's continuous. Meteor posted some guesses on the formula just last page. Thus, adding more SS even within the same message would increase your chances.

Ok, I was reading the past few pages, but it seems that the formulas are guesses based on small amounts of testing. So was just making sure. Thanks

You insult me with your "small amounts of testing" ... 5* formula is 100% correct.

gtmeteor wrote:

Guntrigger wrote:

clocksprocket wrote:

Guntrigger wrote:

I have a question about recruitment
Does it seem that the "chances for success" are more tier form, or linear?
Like If I have X sss and Y SSL and it says "I think the odds for success are extremely high" but I take away Z amount of SSS and it still says "I think the odds for success are extremely high", has the odds decreased even though the message hasn't?

This is what the past few pages of discussion have been about.

It's not a step function -- it's continuous. Meteor posted some guesses on the formula just last page. Thus, adding more SS even within the same message would increase your chances.

Ok, I was reading the past few pages, but it seems that the formulas are guesses based on small amounts of testing. So was just making sure. Thanks

You insult me with your "small amounts of testing" ... 5* formula is 100% correct.

I'm sorry,
I dont mean to insult you at all,
But how can a formula be 100% correct unless you bought 100+ 5*s to test it on?

^ It's a lot better than nothing. I practice low stone volumes so it's really impossible for me to estimate the odds at the higher levels. If you break it down and think rationally about it, it does make good sense from a game design perspective.

On a level 1 5* around 1000 stones for 100% odds would seem about correct for this type of thing. That type of farming would literally take you all week to do - and you'd have to be shopping for stones on the side but it would gaurantee the conversion.

If you ask me - spamming around 5% odds is the way to go - monster level ~30 seems to be the hot spot since it requires significant amounts of feeders past that, and it negates the 300 quotient nicely.

One 5*, with careful leveling, and multiple tries generating a specific messages with various SSl/s and asumptions of at which percentages the messages change.

Took me around 3 hours or so. You can take any 5*, plug numbers in formula, calculate and check what message it would generate, and see for yourself. (Try specifically to generate breaking points with rounding, like 9,49% vs 9,51%, which is a breaking point for a message)

Unless well all of that is a HUGE coincidence, which I really doubt

gtmeteor wrote:

Unless well all of that is a HUGE coincidence, which I really doubt

Well enough for me :p everything I plug in seems about what you'd expect. Especially people failing with 800 or so is the last message but lvl 1 is 80% so still that hateful 20% fail (if my math is good)


Only wish their was a memory to it so I wouldn't feel like I wasted 200SSS on a 1.16% chance -_-

memphiskite wrote:

SebyDC wrote:

Hi guys,
maybe someone can help me..I`m playin this game on a Galasy S2.I began in September.But i can recruit any monsters in this event till now.I`ve over 80 SSS now.."There are no monsters you can recruit at this Time" is the massage when i go on the event..help...

If you have the following monsters in your unit deck, then you're able to try recruiting them:
Demon Tower: Agnes, Charl, Dorothy, Blad
Black Dragon Castle: Luce, Benedetta, Tullia, Sonia
Other: Mermaid, Harpy, Stray Cat

And those are the ones you can easily try to get...

Congrats on your pulls! Lol

King-Shawe wrote:

^ It's a lot better than nothing. I practice low stone volumes so it's really impossible for me to estimate the odds at the higher levels. If you break it down and think rationally about it, it does make good sense from a game design perspective.

On a level 1 5* around 1000 stones for 100% odds would seem about correct for this type of thing. That type of farming would literally take you all week to do - and you'd have to be shopping for stones on the side but it would gaurantee the conversion.

If you ask me - spamming around 5% odds is the way to go - monster level ~30 seems to be the hot spot since it requires significant amounts of feeders past that, and it negates the 300 quotient nicely.

Ohhhhhh
Ok, I retract everything I said.
It only looked unscientific, so I apologize.
That form is probably the best way to get to the target formula
My apologies

gtmeteor wrote:

Formula for 5* recruitment chance:
round( ( 4 * SSL + 0.1 * SSS ) * ( 1 + LVL / 300 ) )

Now gimme a 6* to test...

Also, this formula
[(4*SSL)+(0.1*SSS)] * [1+(LVL/300)]

Is saying that the higher the level of the monster, it increases the chance for success.
I have heard rumors saying higher lvls decrease chances and I have also heard rumors that higher lvls increase chances.
Is anyone able to maybe site patch notes or something from Mobage or the Korean version?

Cause if you can't get your hands on any more SS it would be nice that you just have to lvl it a bit.

Rumors vs provided formula with exact chance that is 99.99% correct?

Seriously. I've provided a way how to check that the formula is correct. Go away.

Don't diss my work with rumors. Be a nice boy and go fetch me a 6* so I could find out the formula for those as well, will you? ...

If you want a more scientific formula - here's one:

Chance = round(4*SSL + (1/10)*SSS + (SSS*LV + 40*SSL*LV)/(10*mLVL - 1))

Checks out to approximately 0.002 precision results.

Guntrigger wrote:

gtmeteor wrote:

Formula for 5* recruitment chance:
round( ( 4 * SSL + 0.1 * SSS ) * ( 1 + LVL / 300 ) )

Now gimme a 6* to test...

Also, this formula
[(4*SSL)+(0.1*SSS)] * [1+(LVL/300)]

Is saying that the higher the level of the monster, it increases the chance for success.
I have heard rumors saying higher lvls decrease chances and I have also heard rumors that higher lvls increase chances.
Is anyone able to maybe site patch notes or something from Mobage or the Korean version?

Cause if you can't get your hands on any more SS it would be nice that you just have to lvl it a bit.

First, no one is able to cite anything since they won't put it in their patch notes. Second, it's already been established for a long time now that higher levels increase chances for success. I've tried it, lot's of people tried it. Higher monster level = less number of stones required.

The rumor where you heard that higher levels decrease chance for success was a player's attempt to google translate the fantasica wiki jp site and unwittingly thought the opposite.

gtmeteor wrote:

Rumors vs provided formula with exact chance that is 99.99% correct?

Seriously. I've provided a way how to check that the formula is correct. Go away.

Don't diss my work with rumors. Be a nice boy and go fetch me a 6* so I could find out the formula for those as well, will you? ...

If you want a more scientific formula - here's one:

Chance = round(4*SSL + (1/10)*SSS + (SSS*LV + 40*SSL*LV)/(10*mLVL - 1))

Checks out to approximately 0.002 precision results.

Dude
Chill
I was questioning the science behind it, you shouldn't feel personally insulted, unless you are that insecure.
But ok, in order to refrain from hurting any other's feelings, I'll back off >.>