Rare Card Report

So a lot of people have superstitions about when to pull boxes: wait a while between pulls? Pull right ater someone else has? Etc etc.

I thought it'd be interesting to have a thread where people can keep track of rare pulls, since it's hard for one person to notice all of them 24/7. Then you can make your own deductions if you want to do some voodoo while pulling or not. (And you can post if you bought a box and DIDN'T get anything, since that's the real information you don't see.)

Please post in the thread if you write down/see any rare card pulls that have not been mentioned yet. A ---?--- denotes an unknown; it is possible that that there wasn't actually a pull during a ---?---.

I'll start off:

[September 22, 2012]
5* Bernhard, 00:11
---?---
6* Anastasia, 1:57
5* Joachim, 3:40 (1h43m)
---?---
5* Serafina, 4:22
5* Thrain, 4:35 (13m)
5* Sarah, 4:45 (10m)
5* Lucrezia, 5:49 (1h4m)
5* Rose, 5:50 (1m)
---?---
5* Lucrezia, 6:50
5* Serafina, 7:18 (28m)
5* Adolph, 7:51 (33m)
5* Sarah, 7:55 (4m)
5* Sarah, 8:09 (14m)
5* Julia, 8:35 (26m)
---?---
5* Ignat, 9:07
5* Ignat, 9:09 (2m)
6* Nina, 10:06 (57m)
5* Rose, 11:26 (1h20m)
5* Vivianne, 11:30 (4m)
5* Sheryl, 12:02 (32m)
5* Sheryl, 12:07 (5m)
5* Vivianne, 12:21 (14m)
5* Sarah, 12:33 (12m)
6* Charles, 12:38 (5m)
---?---
5* Sheryl, 13:14
5* Camille, 13:15 (1m)
5* Vivianne, 13:28 (13m)
5* Adolph, 13:36 (8m)
---?---
5* Lucrezia, 14:39
5* Adolph, 15:24 (45m)
5* Thrain, 16:22 (58m)
6* Monica, 17:36 (1h14m; same person)
5* Elena, 17:36 (same person)
5* Bernhard, 18:46 (1h10m)
5* Thrain, 19:28 (42m)
5* Sofia, 19:44 (16m)
5* Sofia, 20:27 (43m)
6* Dorothea, 20:35 (8m)
5* Lucrezia, 20:49 (14m)
5* Vivianne, 21:06 (17m)
5* Lucrezia, 21:26 (20m, same person)
5* Joachim, 21:26 (same person)
5* Emma, 21:41 (25m)
5* Adolph, 22:15 (34m)
5* Serafina, 22:25 (10m)
5* Vivianne, 22:44 (19m)
5* Sheryl, 23:09 (25m)
6* Monica, 23:23 (14m)

[September 23, 2012]
6* Anastasia, 0:16 (53m)
5* Lucrezia, 0:24 (8m)
5* Bernhard, 0:59 (35m)
5* Sarah, 5:32 (4h33m)
---?---
6* Alexander, 6:47
6* Anastasia, 6:52 (5m)
6* Reinhard, 7:00 (8m)
6* Charles, 7:13 (13m)
5* Hildegard, 7:15 (2m)
5* Lucrezia, 7:27 (12m)
6* Petra, 7:54 (27m)
5* Marguerite, 7:57 (3m)
6* Charles, 8:46 (49m)
6* Reinhard, 8:48 (2m)
5* Julia, 9:06 (18m)
---?---
5* Thrain, 10:06
6* Charles, 10:30 (24m)
5* Rose, 10:57 (27m)
5* Bernhard, 11:30 (33m)
5* Rose, 12:32 (1h2m)
5* Serafina, 13:04 (32m)
---?---
5* Lucrezia, 14:05
5* Thrain, 14:37 (32m)
6* Anastasia, 14:38 (1m)
5* Camille, 15:04 (26m)
5* Rose, 15:48 (44m)
5* Serafina, 16:12 (24m)
5* Elena, 16:32 (20m)
5* Vivianne, 16:59 (27m)
5* Elena, 17:11 (12m)
5* Sarah, 17:22 (11m)
5* Bernhard, 17:57 (35m, same person)
5* Thrain, 17:57 (same person)
5* Sarah, 18:53 (56m)
---?---
6* Charles, 19:43
6* Anastasia, 19:45 (2m)
5* Vivianne, 19:50 (5m)
5* Elena, 20:19 (29m)
6* Charles, 20:22 (3m)
6* Anastasia, 20:23 (1m)
5* Sarah, 20:30 (7m)
---?---
6* Anastasia, 21:04
5*, Elena, 21:06 (2m)
5* Lucrezia, 21:06 (0m)
5* Thrain, 21:29 (23m)
6* Alexander, 22:18 (49m)
6* Alexander, 22:27 (9m)
6* Reinhard, 22:32 (5m)
5* Camille, 22:41 (9m)
5* Thrain, 22:42 (1m)
6* Petra, 23:04 (22m)
6* Petra, 23:06 (2m)
5* Sofia, 23:19 (7m)
5* Lucrezia, 23:24 (5m)
5* Bernhard, 23:48 (24m)

[September 24, 2012]
5* Elena, 00:20 (32m)
5* Bernhard, 00:21 (1m)
5* Sofia, 00:25 (4m)
6* Reinhard, 00:40 (15m)
5* Sarah, 01:08 (28m)
---?---
5* Julia, 2:44
5* Bernhard, 3:01 (17m)
5* Adolph, 3:02 (1m)
5* Joachim, 5:15 (2h13m)
5* Sofia, 7:42 (2h27m)
5* Camille, 8:38 (56m)
6* Nina, 8:40 (2m, same person)
6* Anastasia, 8:40 (same person)
6* Vlad, 9:24 (44m)
5* Bernhard, 10:14 (50m)
5* Vivianne, 10:17 (3m)
5* Hildegard, 11:29 (1h12m)
6* Vlad, 12:23 (54m)
5* Thrain, 12:28 (5m)
5* Sheryl, 12:57 (29m)
6* Charles, 13:04 (7m)
6* Dorothea, 13:39 (35m)
---?---
5* Elena, 18:47
6* Petra, 18:49 (2m)
5* Hildegard, 18:56 (7m)
5* Bernhard, 19:19 (23m)
6* Dorothea, 19:43 (24m)
---?---
5* Serafiina, 20:09
5* Bernhard, 20:12 (3m)
5* Julia, 20:12 (0m)
5* Julia, 20:18 (6m)
5* Sofia, 21:36 (18m)
6* Abel, 21:50 (14m)
5* Marguerite, 21:51 (1m)
6* Dorothea, 22:37 (46m)
5* Thrain, 22:41 (3m)
6* Anastasia, 22:53 (12m)
5* Sofia, 22:57 (4m)
6* Vlad, 23:29 (32m)
5* Emma, 23:30 (1m)
6* Nina, 23:53 (23m)
5* Bernhard, 23:56 (3m)

Hoping to see if we can make up some type of pattern in rares so we can get more?

I personally doubt there's a pattern, but it's human nature to look for them. And it's hard for one person to check the card report all times of the day, so I figured if as a community we wrote them down when people got them, we could have like a week's worth of stuff to look through if we wanted to.

While I know this is simply speculation, this was something that I noticed during the DT event.

Most rares (including DE) were pulled between the 20 and 40th minutes of the hour, and the 2nd rare was pulled 5 to 7 minutes after the first. After I saw the first pull, I timed it and pulled a Thrain (not great but was my first 5 star).

I've attempted to do the same thing twice after the event but with no luck.

This might be useful if I do decide to give-up and try my luck with real money. So:

6* Nina 10:06
5* Rose 11:26
Vivianne 11:30

September 22nd of course and that's AM.

Edited most recent in.

When I get the chance I'll post the ones I saw... It's
My day off and all my chores are done and too lazy to go out and party and drink lol. So ....

09/22/12
00:11 5* Bernhard
... Passed out asleep lol
04:22 5* Serafina
04:35 5* Thrain (13") = 13 minutes
04:45 5* Sarah (10")
05:49 5* Lucrezia (4")
05:50 5* Rose (1")
.... Passed out sleeping
07:55 5* Sarah
08:09 5* Sarah (14")
08:35 5* Julia (26")
.... Passed out sleeping
09:07 5* Ignat
09:09 5* Ignat (2")
10:06 6* Nina (57")
11:26 5* Rose (1'20") = 1hour 20min
11:30 5* Vivianne (4")
12:02 5* Sheryl (32")
12:07 5* Sheryl (5")
12:21 5* Vivuanne (14")

Clock... Now off to go watch Wicked!! :-)

Sheryl 13:14
Camille 13:15
Vivianne 13:28

profile4 wrote:

Sheryl 13:14
Camille 13:15
Vivianne 13:28

13:36 Adolph.


You're missing Sarah, Charles, and Abel that came before that though.

After looking over these (and paying attention to the reports), I'm starting to think that the probability of drawing a rare card increases with the amount of failed card draw attempts.

Of course there's no way you can really tell by using draw patterns is there? Unless we can log everytime someone buys a pack/box. ^_^

ptrang wrote:

After looking over these (and paying attention to the reports), I'm starting to think that the probability of drawing a rare card increases with the amount of failed card draw attempts.

Of course there's no way you can really tell by using draw patterns is there? Unless we can log everytime someone buys a pack/box. ^_^

Updated the list.

As for this post -- yes, there's no real way to tell. There's two key pieces of information we don't know:
- how many boxes were pulled in-between successful rare picks
- how many boxes pulled a 5* or 6* monster (which is not recorded)

I could give my own theory on card pulls but it boils down to statistics.

Bernhard 18:46<--- Right after Elena 17:36
Thrain 19:28
Sofia 19:44

A Vlad hasn't been pulled since 9/17 after my third Reinhard sons Vlad should be pulled soon if there is a pattern.

pnoytroi wrote:

A Vlad hasn't been pulled since 9/17 after my third Reinhard sons Vlad should be pulled soon if there is a pattern.

I acutally already saw someone pull vlad earlier today o.e

Sofia 19.44
Sofia 20.27
Dorothea 20.35

RisingAboveThis wrote:

pnoytroi wrote:

A Vlad hasn't been pulled since 9/17 after my third Reinhard sons Vlad should be pulled soon if there is a pattern.

I acutally already saw someone pull vlad earlier today o.e

Oooh I didn't see that posted on here lol

Updated what I could.

-
-
-
6:Anastasia 1:57 Sept.22
5:Joachim 3:40 Sept.22
-
-
-
5:Lucrezia 6:50 Sept.22
5:Serafina 7:18 Sept.22
5:Adolph 7:51 Sept.22
-
-
-
There was no other card drawn between 8:35 (26m) and 9:07
-
-
-
5:Sarah 12:33 Sept.22
6:Charles 12:38 Sept.22

After that I went to bed =P

5* Serafiina 22:25 Sept.22 (Wintersdemise)
5* Adolph 22:15 Sept.22 (inthestink)
5* Emma 21:41 Sept.22 (sontymc)

Edit: I'm sooooo tempted to buy a megabox right now with the current sale going on. Must... resist... temptation... :<

11:09pm - 5* Sheryl (25min) - Name doesn't need to be mentioned...

^this guy..... haha

5* Bernhard 00:59 Sept.23
5* Lucrezia 00:24 Sept.23
6* Anastasia 00:16 Sept.23 -- congrats, pnoytroi!
6* Monica 23:23 Sept.22
5* Sheryl 23:09 Sept.22 -- congrats, pnoytroi!
5* Vivianne 22:44 Sept.22

Edit: Just to be 100% clear, that's a complete list between the times listed (there are no unknown gaps within it -- all 5 cards were pulled consecutively). I'll put "----" lines between cards if there is missing information, for future reference.

tzerherman wrote:

^this guy..... haha

lol be quiet. *shhhh* >_<

9/23
12:16am - 6* Anastasia (9min around the same time I pulled Monica a couple days ago...)

Updated to the best of my ability. Please use same times as the game when posting. If you're not sure if there was a gap, please post that too. (Alternatively, if times you've written down overlap with something I have already updated or someone has posted, feel free to include it so it's easier to know where yours fit in.)

Start of a new day~

Not sure what there was between Sarah, but that was three 6*s in a row!

e: make that 4?