The TE based economy is under deflation and in short term, I don't see why SS wanna to increase the TE supply (TE prize) as, in addition to cards, TE is the most important for most event. This is what SS intended to do and simply, I would say, this is because they do not understand (or care) in-game economy and they do not have to.
The only economy they understand is TE is important in event and if there is less TE prize, more people will buy their TE.
A very valid point is that that top players do not need to buy any feeders now coz the dragon has so much exp. Also, they sometimes need luna and they might sell 4* for luna or even TE for luna. However, they don't have to pay for enhancement Luna and feeders now. In addition to this, they bought so many packs and so many new cards will come out, which would push down the price of 6*, 5* and 4* further. I saw some people they are trying to sell m4* for 5TE. You can see that how desperate these people are looking for TE nowadays.
The way how free players make TE is not working anymore. (TE prize+grinding) So, free players will looking forward to next event, change to paid players or simply quit. I believe the last one is more likely to happen, as the supply of free games (or PC game) is always there.
We always say there are free players, middle players and top players. Indeed, you can put them into three classes. In the old days, the top people (royal families) always rule the rest, the noble/landlord/priest always own the land and do not have to do anything, the rest always work for the the above two class (well, strictly speaking, there is merchant, not included in here now). You do not have a chance of getting up if you're normal people. But nowadays, it is different, poor people still have a chance to become middle class people if they work hard and have education (knowledge). Yes, I'm talking upward mobility! It is happening in the society nowadays and (un)surprisingly the same thing is happening in this game! If you cannot trade your leveled 4* for TE, few/no trade-able TE prize and events are so much TE dependent, you can never ever get 5*, not to imagine 6*. (that's why there are so many grinders this event)
What does it mean? It means that your hard grind and knowledge in cards, bargaining technique are not working here! So, simply, people will find their "land of opportunity" instead of staying in this game!
In short, I don't think the game will be ended shortly coz it is still making money. As long as there is new players, there will be more free TE (all new players carries free TE). However, can the increase of new player who are active in the game and give out their TE to the others would be enough to support the economy? ie. the net growth of TE is positive or at least a par to the TE consumed. Also, the download number does not reflect the increase of TE, simply, most download were referral and most of them will quit right after they type the referral code in. I highly doubt this coz SS intended not to give free TE.
So, if anyone studied collapsed economy or collapsed currency of some countries, then, you will have a clue what will happen. Black (USD!!) market dominates the mainstream (TE based) market, barter (I highly doubt Luna or f4*, hm4* or m4* would work as currency coz at the moment at least, all are packed to TE and ), reduction of trade, people leave the country, etc. Right now, what is happening is similar to "Bad money drives out good", should Luna be circulated instead of TE? If that's the case then people will tend to rob the others and steal Luna (10000 max/hr). Well, probably, the game was designed in this way coz there is a function called "battle" and "sell" for Luna, for the later one, I highly doubt whether someone used it. At least I have not done it. For battle, it is more common.
You can get free Luna but not free TE (given the TE prize now we have, ~3-5 per event?, you can buy a 5* after 3-5 events under current economy) However, it is not the most important reason behind. The reason is Luna does not give you advantage in completion but TE!
So, what will be the player's strategy? Top players will still buy packs coz it gives them the advantage in events but in addition to that, they will have to buy TE. So, coz of the cost, there will be less top players. Interestingly, middle players will become more willing to buy TE for the 5*/6* card due to lowered cost and for event due to less top players. Free players will be screwed so bad unless they have a good team already and grind their way, sell their items to support top and middle players and upgrade their cards slowly.
As some of you guys may notice, top players will take over the role of the source of TE by buying luna and buying feeders, buying potions and event item. Well, they are not as generous as SS in giving out TE as they are paying for it. So, hard time for free players. SS intended to let people to trade event items for TE or cards such that you will not be screwed so bad a free player. But still, getting your first few TE is easy, getting more TE is difficult now.
This move, I would say is more healthy as a "free" game (coz the base of the paying players should increase) but you cannot have so many people (due to loss of free players) and trading will become less common (imagine every players were given large life drop and which is trade-able for TE, less life drop means top players have to buy more packs). The trading part of the "trading card game" is screwed up.
Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:41 am
