Step-Up Pack Vol. 1

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

I'm not very good at figuring out math and statistics and stuff, but I saw someone say that 5* will be devalued because everyone will be pulling more. Is that because people will be spending more to buy this pack, or does it have something to do with the pack its self? Doesn't the pack only guarantee increased 6* success? So the chance of pulling a 5* is the same as you would get with a regular prem ticket.

So what you're buying is essentially a 2% chance to get a new 6* and nothing else?

I was the guy who said that. XD Anyways, not all 5* cards will be devalued. Some 5* that has a good damage stat will barely lose it's value or may remain at it's current value. Right now, there is a huge amount of 5* cards out there and more than 75% of them are not likely ideal to be sold due to it's low stats almost making them worth close to a high stat 4* card.

Is it possible to sell them? Yes.

Those low stat 5* cards can be used for battle arena. If the price is right, people will buy them but if they are priced too much, many people would rather use 4* cards that are close to a low stat 5* card.

There are way too many paying players and they are spending a load of cash towards the game. This has also ruined to basic trading system where you trad 5 max leveled cards for a higher tier. Right now, cards are being sold as individual items rather than being sold at a rarity level.

Ah, I see. Thank you for explaining. Sorry I didn't find your post and credit you with your idea!

The game economy makes me so sad sometimes. Some days I feel on top of the world, and others it's like I am selling bags of arsenic rather than nice 5* cards. XD

It will be interesting to see the fate of this batch of event cards. Some people are saying that the Qiao girls are like prettier versions of Adolph. I think Xiao will be okay though.

Don't worry about it. Right now, the market is really confusing but the value of cards are not up to me. It is to be dictated by the game maker and the community but as for now, it is going with my own observation.

With the game producer finding ways to make more money, there is this chance where 5* is overproduced and one day, 6* cards will also decline in price greatly after 7* cards are released at a rate. Even right now, we can all notice the drop prices of 6* cards.

There are two factors driving the cost of 6/5/4s down.

1) TE Shortage - More TE is being spent than being replaced. This drives down the TE to Card costs. This affects LE cards AND non-LE cards.
2) The amount of x rarity card being pulled. Thanksgiving Sale, step up sale, etc all drive the price of cards down. This mostly affects NON-LE card prices.

Of the two factors, the first factor is the biggest reason for why the price of cards using TE is going down lower and lower.

The second factor, while it does affect the market, does not have as large an impact as the first one. It's limited primarily to the non-LE market. The reason for this is there is a constant influx of new players who will want these cards at some point. LE cards until the reprint are finite. Non LE cards are essentially unlimited.

In card to card trades, LE to LE have stayed constant pretty much. It's the non-LE market which is most affected by these x times draw chance changes.

What I'm hinting at is, the 'overdraw' rate does not explain fully why the price of cards is going down. It's primarily due to the first reason. The second only affects the non-LE segment of the market. Just because the first and second happen concurrently does not mean that A = B.

Also, in response to the 5 to trade up to a higher tier comment. The market has a trickle down effect. 6*s are ALWAYS impacted first in the market. Since they are the most visible and most obvious. Eventually the market catches up and the 5*s are affected, then the 4*s.

As of right now, I am still trading 3-8 max 4* for my 5* units and getting trades done. The only time I have not been able to is when the market hasn't caught up with itself in that 'between' period before it balances out.

Also, trading by rarity is a bit questionable since there is a large variance in the 5 and 6 category in terms of DPS/usability due to power creep and other factors.

I'd happily trade a Hippolyte for Grey for example if rarity was all that mattered.

Personally I've always regarded drawing a 6* akin to striking lottery.

Statistically it's quite unrealistic for most to get enough tickets to reliably strike lottery. Getting 10x chance is like getting 10 tickets for the price of one, you still can't expect to win lottery by buying 10x more tickets. You always need luck.

As for anticipating card value, as Japan is ahead in events, we can preview upcoming cards. I compare with unreleased cards as well before buying a new card. Augi128 has done a great job of updating the unreleased cards into the Fantasica Master List.

The last step made me so happy after drawing nothing for 6 steps, i drew camille and Nina in step 7

BkWiz wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

I'm not very good at figuring out math and statistics and stuff, but I saw someone say that 5* will be devalued because everyone will be pulling more. Is that because people will be spending more to buy this pack, or does it have something to do with the pack its self? Doesn't the pack only guarantee increased 6* success? So the chance of pulling a 5* is the same as you would get with a regular prem ticket.

So what you're buying is essentially a 2% chance to get a new 6* and nothing else?

I was the guy who said that. XD Anyways, not all 5* cards will be devalued. Some 5* that has a good damage stat will barely lose it's value or may remain at it's current value. Right now, there is a huge amount of 5* cards out there and more than 75% of them are not likely ideal to be sold due to it's low stats almost making them worth close to a high stat 4* card.

Is it possible to sell them? Yes.

Those low stat 5* cards can be used for battle arena. If the price is right, people will buy them but if they are priced too much, many people would rather use 4* cards that are close to a low stat 5* card.

There are way too many paying players and they are spending a load of cash towards the game. This has also ruined to basic trading system where you trad 5 max leveled cards for a higher tier. Right now, cards are being sold as individual items rather than being sold at a rarity level.

Ah, I see. Thank you for explaining. Sorry I didn't find your post and credit you with your idea!

The game economy makes me so sad sometimes. Some days I feel on top of the world, and others it's like I am selling bags of arsenic rather than nice 5* cards. XD

It will be interesting to see the fate of this batch of event cards. Some people are saying that the Qiao girls are like prettier versions of Adolph. I think Xiao will be okay though.

Don't worry about it. Right now, the market is really confusing but the value of cards are not up to me. It is to be dictated by the game maker and the community but as for now, it is going with my own observation.

With the game producer finding ways to make more money, there is this chance where 5* is overproduced and one day, 6* cards will also decline in price greatly after 7* cards are released at a rate. Even right now, we can all notice the drop prices of 6* cards.

There are two factors driving the cost of 6/5/4s down.

1) TE Shortage - More TE is being spent than being replaced. This drives down the TE to Card costs. This affects LE cards AND non-LE cards.
2) The amount of x rarity card being pulled. Thanksgiving Sale, step up sale, etc all drive the price of cards down. This mostly affects NON-LE card prices.

Of the two factors, the first factor is the biggest reason for why the price of cards using TE is going down lower and lower.

The second factor, while it does affect the market, does not have as large an impact as the first one. It's limited primarily to the non-LE market. The reason for this is there is a constant influx of new players who will want these cards at some point. LE cards until the reprint are finite. Non LE cards are essentially unlimited.

In card to card trades, LE to LE have stayed constant pretty much. It's the non-LE market which is most affected by these x times draw chance changes.

What I'm hinting at is, the 'overdraw' rate does not explain fully why the price of cards is going down. It's primarily due to the first reason. The second only affects the non-LE segment of the market. Just because the first and second happen concurrently does not mean that A = B.

Also, in response to the 5 to trade up to a higher tier comment. The market has a trickle down effect. 6*s are ALWAYS impacted first in the market. Since they are the most visible and most obvious. Eventually the market catches up and the 5*s are affected, then the 4*s.

As of right now, I am still trading 3-8 max 4* for my 5* units and getting trades done. The only time I have not been able to is when the market hasn't caught up with itself in that 'between' period before it balances out.

Also, trading by rarity is a bit questionable since there is a large variance in the 5 and 6 category in terms of DPS/usability due to power creep and other factors.

I'd happily trade a Hippolyte for Grey for example if rarity was all that mattered.

Great post~

It seems that in regards to the LE cards, what has frustrated people the most has been the degree of price deprecation after events. In a normal market with TE I am assuming that the price may have gone down 10 or 20 TE, but now it is almost always half of the base price. Most people after every event get hysterical now saying "Omg, this is dreambreakers all over again! SELL SELL SELL." I think the anticipation of a card becoming cheap is fueling some kind of reaction that makes people hysterically sell their cards towards the end of events instead of holding on to them and waiting for the price to go up.

Additionally, I think that popularity/reputation is also a factor in determining price. I am relatively sure that a large portion of people who trade cards don't check prices or stats. I remember a woman with Elena insulting me if I asked her if she wanted Eleanor. She thought that stat wise Elena was a lot better than Eleanor because she "heard" Eleanor is garbage. I have had this a few times, where the stats of a card may be fine, but people just get irrationally offended when you ask them because they heard the card may be bad XD. Conversely, I have seen people pay large amounts of TE for cards that have stats that aren't remarkable, but they only want the card because of how they look.

BkWiz wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

aubade888 wrote:

I'm not very good at figuring out math and statistics and stuff, but I saw someone say that 5* will be devalued because everyone will be pulling more. Is that because people will be spending more to buy this pack, or does it have something to do with the pack its self? Doesn't the pack only guarantee increased 6* success? So the chance of pulling a 5* is the same as you would get with a regular prem ticket.

So what you're buying is essentially a 2% chance to get a new 6* and nothing else?

I was the guy who said that. XD Anyways, not all 5* cards will be devalued. Some 5* that has a good damage stat will barely lose it's value or may remain at it's current value. Right now, there is a huge amount of 5* cards out there and more than 75% of them are not likely ideal to be sold due to it's low stats almost making them worth close to a high stat 4* card.

Is it possible to sell them? Yes.

Those low stat 5* cards can be used for battle arena. If the price is right, people will buy them but if they are priced too much, many people would rather use 4* cards that are close to a low stat 5* card.

There are way too many paying players and they are spending a load of cash towards the game. This has also ruined to basic trading system where you trad 5 max leveled cards for a higher tier. Right now, cards are being sold as individual items rather than being sold at a rarity level.

Ah, I see. Thank you for explaining. Sorry I didn't find your post and credit you with your idea!

The game economy makes me so sad sometimes. Some days I feel on top of the world, and others it's like I am selling bags of arsenic rather than nice 5* cards. XD

It will be interesting to see the fate of this batch of event cards. Some people are saying that the Qiao girls are like prettier versions of Adolph. I think Xiao will be okay though.

Don't worry about it. Right now, the market is really confusing but the value of cards are not up to me. It is to be dictated by the game maker and the community but as for now, it is going with my own observation.

With the game producer finding ways to make more money, there is this chance where 5* is overproduced and one day, 6* cards will also decline in price greatly after 7* cards are released at a rate. Even right now, we can all notice the drop prices of 6* cards.

There are two factors driving the cost of 6/5/4s down.

1) TE Shortage - More TE is being spent than being replaced. This drives down the TE to Card costs. This affects LE cards AND non-LE cards.
2) The amount of x rarity card being pulled. Thanksgiving Sale, step up sale, etc all drive the price of cards down. This mostly affects NON-LE card prices.

Of the two factors, the first factor is the biggest reason for why the price of cards using TE is going down lower and lower.

The second factor, while it does affect the market, does not have as large an impact as the first one. It's limited primarily to the non-LE market. The reason for this is there is a constant influx of new players who will want these cards at some point. LE cards until the reprint are finite. Non LE cards are essentially unlimited.

In card to card trades, LE to LE have stayed constant pretty much. It's the non-LE market which is most affected by these x times draw chance changes.

What I'm hinting at is, the 'overdraw' rate does not explain fully why the price of cards is going down. It's primarily due to the first reason. The second only affects the non-LE segment of the market. Just because the first and second happen concurrently does not mean that A = B.

Also, in response to the 5 to trade up to a higher tier comment. The market has a trickle down effect. 6*s are ALWAYS impacted first in the market. Since they are the most visible and most obvious. Eventually the market catches up and the 5*s are affected, then the 4*s.

As of right now, I am still trading 3-8 max 4* for my 5* units and getting trades done. The only time I have not been able to is when the market hasn't caught up with itself in that 'between' period before it balances out.

Also, trading by rarity is a bit questionable since there is a large variance in the 5 and 6 category in terms of DPS/usability due to power creep and other factors.

I'd happily trade a Hippolyte for Grey for example if rarity was all that mattered.

I'm actually waiting for an arena event. It is one possibility of fixing the market but I don't think prices will go back close to where it was. Lots of cards are saved because they are being recycled and produced so there will be a point where 5* cards will be used as feeders.

There aren't really many free players in the game considering most of us with smartphones have credit cards. We are also coming to a cycle where past events are coming back. Right now, we are all depending on new players to balance the market. If there are more players thinking of throwing $200-1500 on this game then it's a new different story.

We still got to put that this is a phone game so I doubt we will get that many new players to balance enough.

To predict any possible outcome will only result to many speculative results but we can't really tell until the next arena event.

At least I get Lieselotte at Step 3

During Christmas event bought total of 17 Megabox result with : 1 Rouge, 2 Deesse, 1 Emma, 1 Sheryl and 1 Julia. I stop after 17 Megapack for whish ticket to get Debbie.

For step up pack nothing special in step one to step 6 just one Ignat.
6 step 7 packs result with Dana, Abel, Diane, Ignat, Eleonor, Nue, Devil, Cyclops

From my experience if i need to choose between Standard Megapack without event like Xmas and step up pack, i would pull step up pack without hesitation (only the 2nd pack have nothing U or M 5* or 6*).

athrunjustice0 wrote:

During Christmas event bought total of 17 Megabox result with : 1 Rouge, 2 Deesse, 1 Emma, 1 Sheryl and 1 Julia. I stop after 17 Megapack for whish ticket to get Debbie.

For step up pack nothing special in step one to step 6 just one Ignat.
6 step 7 packs result with Dana, Abel, Diane, Ignat, Eleonor, Nue, Devil, Cyclops

From my experience if i need to choose between Standard Megapack without event like Xmas and step up pack, i would pull step up pack without hesitation (only the 2nd pack have nothing U or M 5* or 6*).

We do get events where you get better chances on the packs. You'd rather wait for those events to spend your money. You do have a lot of good cards tho. lol

lmnseason wrote:

I'm actually waiting for an arena event. It is one possibility of fixing the market but I don't think prices will go back close to where it was. Lots of cards are saved because they are being recycled and produced so there will be a point where 5* cards will be used as feeders.

There aren't really many free players in the game considering most of us with smartphones have credit cards. We are also coming to a cycle where past events are coming back. Right now, we are all depending on new players to balance the market. If there are more players thinking of throwing $200-1500 on this game then it's a new different story.

We still got to put that this is a phone game so I doubt we will get that many new players to balance enough.

To predict any possible outcome will only result to many speculative results but we can't really tell until the next arena event.

Arena events will not bring prices back to where they were. IF anything, prices will drop more during and after the arena event.

What will occur is 6s like Charles/Nina will be in high demand, however TE = value wise they will all continue to drop due to the lack of TE in the market atm until the recycle event starts occurring.

Also atm Japan has not reused any events, so it's unlikely we will be reusing events anytime soon.


To answer another post *I hate multi requotes, this forum doesn't allow you to do multi quotes*, yes eyeballed stats and art do play a factor in TE value.

But people are slowly starting to realize that stats don't necessarily mean a card is good. Since you have to take into consideration attack speed. Art rarity is always dependant on the beholder, so it's also hard to figure out between people.

here's a poser...

will the step-up packs cause the game to be flooded with 6*... they are supposed to be rare... not common... just like how the 3* ROTTK units are currently 'rare'... hahaha...

when cards become more common, like it or not, it does bring down the value a bit. this is where Limited Edition cards, as rightly pointed out, still can retain their value.

having said that... i guess some will be happy that this step-up pack is just for a limited time only...

What I've noticed about cards is there is a base value, or comparative value, but due to the lack of TE it has equalized somewhat into tiers. Like previously Barb may have been worth more than Marguerite. However, due to lack of popularity they and many other "low tier cards," (either from art or opinion on stats) have been made the same (at 35 TE). I have five different 5* right now, and they are all worth around 60 TE, since that's the lowest anyone is willing to go. I would argue that in the previous market a maxed Sheryl would have cost about 90 TE maxed and a fresh Sarah around 120TE, but now they are close to the same give or take ten TE.

speaking of tiers... *sigh*

blame struessdal.

i find this tier thing to be taken too seriously by many... each card 5* and 6* have got a purpose. it's just a matter of us finding a strategy that suits our style and the cards...

myad wrote:

speaking of tiers... *sigh*

blame struessdal.

i find this tier thing to be taken too seriously by many... each card 5* and 6* have got a purpose. it's just a matter of us finding a strategy that suits our style and the cards...

Eh, don't take the tier thing too seriously. I get really insulted when I speak to people and they say "I want to buy a card." I tell them what cards I have and they remark "no, I don't want to buy that card because it's garbage tier." That's happened to me like three times XD.

I'm working on getting Penth right now because I luff her. My friend says it might be a bad investment though since she doesn't have giant boobs so it will be hard to resell her XD. Same with Boylen and Plau (two other cards I own). As opposed to Diane who has pretty good stats, but an insane price because she has giant tumors coming out of her chest.

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

aubade888 wrote:

myad wrote:

speaking of tiers... *sigh*

blame struessdal.

i find this tier thing to be taken too seriously by many... each card 5* and 6* have got a purpose. it's just a matter of us finding a strategy that suits our style and the cards...

Eh, don't take the tier thing too seriously. I get really insulted when I speak to people and they say "I want to buy a card." I tell them what cards I have and they remark "no, I don't want to buy that card because it's garbage tier." That's happened to me like three times XD.

I'm working on getting Penth right now because I luff her. My friend says it might be a bad investment though since she doesn't have giant boobs so it will be hard to resell her XD. Same with Boylen and Plau (two other cards I own). As opposed to Diane who has pretty good stats, but an insane price because she has giant tumors coming out of her chest.

dang, tier categorization is now based on boob size??! lolz... joachim!!!

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

Or you could spend the 50 dollars on a giant bottle of vodka and convince yourself you have a 6*.

Like this classy lady in the tube top:

http://cdn100.iofferphoto.com/img/item/154/443/691/lbSHbfUcfPkNW32.jpg

Edit

And this classy lady!

http://a4.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/96/bb88ec1466787f8ffe27b47584e5a7ef/l.jpg

I honestly have a difficult time to imagine which way to spend $50 will make me happier.

aubade888 wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

Or you could spend the 50 dollars on a giant bottle of vodka and convince yourself you have a 6*.

Like this classy lady in the tube top:

http://cdn100.iofferphoto.com/img/item/154/443/691/lbSHbfUcfPkNW32.jpg

Edit

And this classy lady!

http://a4.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/96/bb88ec1466787f8ffe27b47584e5a7ef/l.jpg

Grey Goose is around $80 Canadian.

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

I'm sure you are itching to hit that 5000 coin button. You could end up with a Charles

wilyone wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

I'm sure you are itching to hit that 5000 coin button. You could end up with a Charles

Or with an Alfonso XD

lmnseason wrote:

wilyone wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

I'm sure you are itching to hit that 5000 coin button. You could end up with a Charles

Or with an Alfonso XD

Or Alexander! The 5* with the best stats in the game!

Why are you guys testing my patience with this button....?

I don't want to touch it.... ;A;

BTW, I got Alfonso from 4th step...

aubade888 wrote:

lmnseason wrote:

wilyone wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

myad wrote:

memphiskite wrote:

Step up increases your odds of getting a 6*....? Didn't work for me after 6 steps... I don't even dare touch that 5000 coin button...

Honestly, my luck gives better odds the same as usual, so I'll stick with that... btw, that's an invitation to punch me

maybe u'll get lucky with step 7?

ohohoho! dont you tempt me with those words now.... >.<

I'm sure you are itching to hit that 5000 coin button. You could end up with a Charles

Or with an Alfonso XD

Or Alexander! The 5* with the best stats in the game!

U mean 6*? I like that. I don't mind getting him for the right price.

I have the right allies anyways that can synchronize with him.